Galentine’s Day Comes Early: Subban Signs, Galchenyuk and Gallagher to Stay for the Season

by Jacob Saltiel
bergevin1

The Glasses Must Be Working
from commentjemhabille.com

Will January 28th, 2013 be another unremarkable and cold winter’s day in Montreal or will Canadiens fans remember this as the beginning of a new era? Bergevin must be thinking playoffs and Therrien must be thinking that Galchenyuk can make many more plays like the one that set up Gallagher’s first goal.

Subban’s signing at about 7:20pm concludes the lineup moves for starting this season. How this negotiation affects the next one will affect where the Habs are in 5 years.

Galchenyuk

As covered elsewhere in this blog, it remains a dubious management move to keep Galchenyuk, even with Pacioretty out. Once Pacioretty returns, Eller’s out of a lineup spot (thanks for the memory, bud).

4 games in, the only decent team the Habs have played is the Devils. This being the case, the small sample size used to determine Galchenyuk’s suitability for playing at the NHL level doesn’t even include an elite opponent. In the last 4 games, the 3rd line has been strong and supplied good minutes to a team that, with Bourque finally proving capable of lighting up an EKG if not a goal lamp and when Pacioretty was healthy, had solid lines from to bottom.

Enthusiasm for the hot start should be tempered by the quality of competition*  and many of the goals coming from the unreliable presence of the excellent Markov. If the Canadiens are outside of the playoffs 6 weeks from now and Galchenyuk is slumping or injured, Bergevin’s decisive handling of Galchenyuk will be second-guessed.

If the Canadiens make the playoffs and win a couple of rounds, then the above-mentioned caveats matter little.

Galchenyuk makes about $3.225m/year for 3 years, depending on which performance bonuses he reaches.

Gallagher

On the other hand, Gallagher fits on this team on any of the top-3 lines as a scrappy little guy who can pot some goals and irritate the other teams’ D. His style of play is needed in Montreal, as he complements Cole and Pacioretty’s relentless pursuit of the puck into the crease and behind the goalie. Not all of his goals will be as pretty as his first, but barring injury- he’s listed at only 163lbs- he should score reliably in his role as a smilier Ryan Smyth in miniature.

Gallagher makes less than a third of Galchenyuk’s money at $870,000/year for the next 3 years, and he should be full value.

Subban

It’s tempting to say ‘finally!’ but it’s only 4 games into the season and given the incompatible bargaining positions of the two sides, the effect on this season shouldn’t be overstated. Bob McKenzie on TSN’s That’s Hockey reported that Subban insisted on longterm security- as any smart player should push for- and the Canadiens were adamant that it would be a 2 year deal.

What should be said is that this is a total capitulation by Subban, who does not deserve the wrath of Habs fans. No. Once he steps back into the lineup, the Habs will have a top-4 of Markov-Emelin and Gorges-Subban, which will reduce minutes for Bouillon (yay!) and plant one of Weber or Kaberle in the pressbox more or less until someone gets injured (hooray!). The big loser in this deal isn’t Subban at all, but Weber who will almost certainly be playing anywhere but in Montreal next year with Tinordi and Beaulieu breathing down his neck.

Subban playing alongside Gorges, Bouillon, and Emelin will be an oddly short but tough defence that will give away inches of ice as easilyas the Quebec Government hikes tuition (hiyo!). Markov, now that he’s figured out the Matrix, always has the puck, so all Diaz has to do is not actively attempt to fire the puck into his own net to make this an all-around strong top-6.

Bergevin

As for Bergevin, this deal is a conditional rather than total victory.

The value in the bridge contract comes from keeping Subban’s annual cap hit low for this summer, when about $10m comes off the cap. If Subban had been extended longterm now, that big money extension would have eaten into that cap space when Bergevin could be using it to sign pending UFAs David Clarkson or Corey Perry (an optimistic target, but one he’d at least have the money for). Whether or not Subban even plays well this season, Bergevin should offer him his longterm extension in the summer. This way, the cap hit will only bump up the following offseason when Gionta and Markov come off the books. This allows Bergevin the flexibility to put money on some UFA’s brains and augment his young core for next season. Speaking of which, his only expensive RFA will be Desharnais. The following year, he’ll have to choose between extending Markov, Emelin, Diaz, and an aged Gionta, though he should still have money to play with once the rest of the salary cap chaff disappears.**

So for now, it looks good. If Bergevin doesn’t eventually get Subban signed to a longterm deal or if Subban gets a calculator-melting offer sheet two summers from now, fans might look back on January 28th with mixed emotions.

 

***

*Florida and Toronto already look like teams in the draft lottery

** All of this assumes league revenues don’t vanish in the next few years and NHL GM’s end up operating with a salary cap of 12 dollars, 50 cents, and free clothing adorned with their employer’s logo.

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